After a dirt race and one at Talladega’s superspeedway, NASCAR moves to the Monster Mile at Dover, where Kyle Larson is back as the favorite. Can he get his first win since February? Or will chaos continue to pop its head into the Cup Series? Jeff Gluck and Jordan Bianchi have answers, predictions, longshot picks, and even help with your fantasy lineups!
UPDATE: Due to inclement weather, the race was suspended and will pick back up again at noon (ET) on Monday on FS1. We updated the odds below to reflect where the drivers stand after 78 laps.
Jordan: Outside of superspeedways, Kyle Larson is a sound pick to win every week. And that definitely applies at Dover, a track where Larson owns the best average finish and has led the fourth most laps. So knowing this it’s no surprise he has the best odds this weekend. Overall, though, a few unknowns still exist regarding how this new Next Gen car will perform on a track like Dover to confidently say one way or another who will do well and who won’t.
Jeff: Drivers were pretty uncertain when the topic of Dover was brought up last weekend. There are a lot of questions – yet again – about how the Next Gen will perform there. We haven’t really seen it on a track like this yet (high-banked concrete with big loads in the corners). How will that shake things up? Martin Truex Jr. predicted Dover would be “the hardest race to pass we’ve ever seen.” If so, that means it will be a track position game where qualifying matters tremendously, along with pit strategy. Anyway, that’s a long way of saying Larson might do well there – but he’s so far out in front as a favorite compared to even his teammates that I’m not sure this is a good bet.
Jordan: Does Christopher Bell at +2500 qualify as a sleeper? If so, he’d be a good pick considering his success here in the Xfinity Series (two wins and a fourth in four starts) and he drives for Joe Gibbs Racing. If you prefer someone with longer odds, go with Daniel Suarez (+4000). He has five top 10 finishes in nine starts and a better average finish (13.2) than several notables including Kyle Busch (14.2), Denny Hamlin (16.3) and Ryan Blaney (18.9).
Jeff: This is going way out on a limb, but you did say “longshot,” so I’ll go with Cole Custer at +12500. He’s raced at Dover three times in the Cup Series and has finished 11th, 10th and 10th. Dover is the only place where Custer has had more than one top 10 finish in his young Cup Series career, and it’s also a track that was tied for the most top-fives and top-10s in his Xfinity Series days (with a 5.3 average finish). Dover seems to suit Custer for whatever reason, so if you’re looking for a risky play, this could be it.
Jordan: Tyler Reddick and Chase Briscoe are two who immediately come to mind. Reddick has been fast most weeks and is overdue to get that first-career win; Dover is a good place for that to happen. Similarly, Briscoe has run better than his stats indicate — just three top 10s on the season, though he does have a win — and it wouldn’t be surprising if he popped off a second win.
Jeff: Ross Chastain might be running the best of anyone right now, yet he’s only the 11th-most expensive driver on FanDuel. That said, qualifying sounds like it’s going to be a major factor this week, so you might want to wait until after Saturday’s session to figure this out. There are a lot more laps available to lead at Dover (400) than, say, Talladega (188), so you’re really going to need a hammer or two in your lineup and not focus as much on position differential.
Jordan: Everything is cyclical in NASCAR and while Chevrolet is leading the way now, the expectation is that another manufacturer will surpass them. Someone in the Ford or Toyota is going to find something on the new car that will lead to a performance advantage. It is unreasonable to think Chevrolet is going to dominate for the entirety of the season.
Jeff: There’s not as much you can do with this car in terms of changes, so I’d say Chevrolet carries an advantage for now. But we’ll have a lot more clarity on where things stand through the field after the May races at Darlington, Kansas and Charlotte. Those will tell us a lot about which manufacturers and teams truly are on top of their game.
Starting lineup for Dover after Chris Buescher wins his first career NASCAR Cup Series pole: pic.twitter.com/Nz9gojpscU
— Jeff Gluck (@jeff_gluck) April 30, 2022
Consecutive 10-lap averages from #NASCAR Cup Series practice @MonsterMile. Top three: Larson, Preece, Elliott.#FantasyNASCAR pic.twitter.com/4x9hskcWRS
— Zack Albert (@zack_albert) April 30, 2022
Jordan: In essence, because track time is limited due to the new practice/qualifying format, teams essentially have to unload their cars with their chassis setups largely ready for the race. No longer can teams use practice to experiment, it’s now more about fine tuning. What that means is more carryover from practice to the race regarding who should be fast. Study practice on Saturday to see who’s fast over a prolonged run and that will help you identify who to pick to win on Sunday.
Jeff: Yes, mainly because most of the weekend formats now have practice flowing straight into qualifying and then the cars are impounded – meaning they can’t make any adjustments before the race. So in theory, what you see out of practice speeds should be fairly reflective of the race. At Martinsville, for example, William Byron was No. 2 in 10-lap average speed during practice and dominated the race. All three drivers who could have won the Austin road course race were in the top eight in practice. The two drivers who dominated Phoenix (Chase Briscoe and Ryan Blaney) were in the top six in practice. You get my point: it doesn’t seem like someone has come out of nowhere with a bad practice to win very often this season. It’s just a matter of picking the correct driver.
Jordan: Dover is regarded as a track where experience counts due to its unique layout. So considering Harvick has more starts (41) than all but one driver (Kurt Busch) in the field, that has to count for something. Realistically, though, there are better picks to win Sunday. Harvick and his team are not fully clicking — just 12 laps led — and until they start to show improved performance, look elsewhere.
Jeff: Experience matters, but this car is so different and Harvick hasn’t won in such a long time now that I wouldn’t go too far in saying he’s any sort of favorite. I could see him getting a top-five finish; I’m not as sure about a win.
Jordan: Dover is a high banked, concrete oval that really doesn’t compare to any other track on the circuit. Basically, it’s the NASCAR equivalent of racing inside a cereal bowl. The problem is that doesn’t always translate to good racing. The hope is that the new car fixes this problem, similar to what we’ve seen at other tracks this season.
Jeff: It’s definitely a difficult track and one that is prone to multi-car crashes that take out several innocent drivers. The race could easily get strung out into a snoozefest and might not have much action (as has been the case there recently), but perhaps the new car will give the drivers a handful. Here’s hoping for a good show, anyway.
(Top photo: Logan Riely/Getty Images; in-line photo: Jasen Vinlove-USA TODAY Sport; Mike Dinovo-USA TODAY Sports)
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